Monthly Market Update: Government Reopens, Uncertainty Lingers

Government Reopens, but Markets Remain Uneasy

After weeks of uncertainty, the government has officially reopened, but the economic picture remains cloudy. While this development removes one major source of concern, the delay in official data releases continues to weigh on markets and policy decisions.

Market Performance

Equity markets experienced a notable pullback recently, with the S&P 500 falling 1.66%—its sharpest decline in over a month. Growth and technology stocks led the retreat, while the equally weighted S&P 500 fared slightly better. This downturn came despite the positive news of the government reopening, underscoring that investor sentiment remains cautious.

The Data Gap and Fed Policy

The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment as it approaches its December meeting. With October jobs and inflation reports delayed, policymakers lack critical data to guide interest rate decisions. Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in a near-certain rate cut for December; now, expectations have dropped to roughly 50%, reflecting growing uncertainty.

Mixed Signals from Private Data

In the absence of official reports, investors are turning to private surveys and indicators for clues:

• Consumer sentiment has weakened, with more households expecting higher unemployment in the year ahead.
• Small business optimism has slipped to a nine-month low, signaling softer sales trends.
• Service sector activity remains strong, but inflationary pressures persist.
• Manufacturing continues to contract, and October layoffs surged to the highest level for that month in over two decades.
• On a brighter note, private payrolls showed modest growth, though this data often diverges from official government figures.

Looking Ahead

As we head into the holiday season, consumer spending will be a key driver of economic momentum. Market volatility may persist in the near term, but history shows that periods of uncertainty often create opportunities for disciplined, long-term investors. Diversification remains essential, and any short-term pullbacks could present attractive entry points.

Despite current challenges, we remain optimistic about 2026, anticipating strong earnings growth, continued fiscal and monetary support, and significant cash reserves ready to enter the market when valuations improve.

What This Means for You

• Stay Focused on Long-Term Goals: Short-term volatility can be unsettling, but it rarely changes the fundamentals of a well-constructed financial plan.
• Diversification Matters: Recent market swings highlight the importance of spreading risk across asset classes.
• Opportunities Ahead: Pullbacks often create buying opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon.
• Consult Your Advisor: Every investor’s situation is unique. Before making changes, speak with your financial professional to ensure your strategy aligns with your goals and risk tolerance.

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Greenwood Hoff Wealth Management
Learn more about our approach and resources at www.greenwoodhoff.com . 

Cetera Investors is a marketing name of Cetera Investment Services. Securities and Insurance products are offered through Cetera Investment Services LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFG STC Insurance Agency LLC), and member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Cetera Investment Advisers, LLC. Office Address: 19 British American Blvd East, Latham, NY 12110. Phone# (518)724-5004. The material contained in this document was derived from the articles written by Cetera Investment Management LLC written in November 2025, which can be located on our website: www.greenwoodhoff.com . Commentaries are published by Cetera Investment Management LLC, an SEC registered adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group.